Spatiotemporal impacts of human activities and socio-demographics during the COVID-19 outbreak in the US.

BACKGROUND: Understanding non-epidemiological factors is essential for the surveillance and prevention of infectious diseases, and the factors are likely to vary spatially and temporally as the disease progresses. However, the impacts of these influencing factors were primarily assumed to be stationary over time and space in the existing literature. The spatiotemporal impacts of mobility-related and social-demographic factors on disease dynamics remain to be explored. METHODS: Taking daily cases data during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in the US as a case study, we develop a mobility-augmented geographically and temporally weighted regression (M-GTWR) model to quantify the spatiotemporal impacts of social-demographic factors and human activities on the COVID-19 dynamics. Different from the base GTWR model, the proposed M-GTWR model incorporates a mobility-adjusted distance weight matrix where travel mobility is used in addition to the spatial adjacency to capture the correlations among local observations. RESULTS: The results reveal that the impacts of social-demographic and human activity variables present significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity. In particular, a 1% increase in population density may lead to 0.63% more daily cases, and a 1% increase in the mean commuting time may result in 0.22% increases in daily cases. Although increased human activities will, in general, intensify the disease outbreak, we report that the effects of grocery and pharmacy-related activities are insignificant in areas with high population density. And activities at the workplace and public transit are found to either increase or decrease the number of cases, depending on particular locations. CONCLUSIONS: Through a mobility-augmented spatiotemporal modeling approach, we could quantify the time and space varying impacts of non-epidemiological factors on COVID-19 cases. The results suggest that the effects of population density, socio-demographic attributes, and travel-related attributes will differ significantly depending on the time of the pandemic and the underlying location. Moreover, policy restrictions on human contact are not universally effective in preventing the spread of diseases.

Understanding the Recovery of On-Demand Mobility Services in the COVID-19 Era

The COVID-19 pandemic and its related events (e.g., lockdown policies, vaccine distributions) have caused disruptive changes in travel patterns and urban mobility services. Cities need to understand the impacts of these factors on mobility activities for taking effective actions to restore/reform urban transportation systems and prepare for future shocks. In this study, we investigate the correlations between the COVID-19 related factors and the usage of on-demand mobility services (OMS, i.e., street-hailing, ride-hailing, and bike-sharing) through a two-step framework. In the first step, we construct low-dimensional representations, called mobility signals, of multivariate mobility data which provide a temporal understanding of the variation of trips across different modes. Then the Bayesian structural time series model is utilized to estimate the regression coefficients and inclusion probability of different time-varying factors including COVID-19 cases, policies, and vaccination rates in predicting each mobility signal. This framework is adopted in New York City (NYC) and Chicago, two example cities that have been significant affected by COVID-19 disruptions and that have comprehensive on-demand mobility services. The results suggest an asymmetrical influence of COVID-19 related policies to the usage of OMS: the mobility/business restrictions can trigger fast and consistent decrease of ridership, but lifting these restrictions does not result in a fast rebound. Our analyses further uncovers the heterogeneity of spatial impacts of different COVID-19 related policies. A one-year prediction of OMS usage is conducted and the results suggest a highly uncertain future of the ride-hailing and street-hailing services, and relatively stable bike-sharing usage in the near future.

Mobile phone location data for disasters: A review from natural hazards and epidemics

Rapid urbanization and climate change trends, intertwined with complex interactions of various social, economic, and political factors, have resulted in an increase in the frequency and intensity of disaster events. While regions around the world face urgent demands to prepare for, respond to, and to recover from such disasters, large-scale location data collected from mobile phone devices have opened up novel approaches to tackle these challenges. Mobile phone location data have enabled us to observe, estimate, and model human mobility dynamics at an unprecedented spatio-temporal granularity and scale. The COVID-19 pandemic, in particular, has spurred the use of mobile phone location data for pandemic and disaster management. However, there is a lack of a comprehensive review that synthesizes the last decade of work and case studies leveraging mobile phone location data for response to and recovery from natural hazards and epidemics. We address this gap by summarizing the existing work, and point to promising areas and future challenges for using mobile phone location data to support disaster response and recovery.

Early warning of COVID-19 hotspots using human mobility and web search query data.

COVID-19 has disrupted the global economy and well-being of people at an unprecedented scale and magnitude. To contain the disease, an effective early warning system that predicts the locations of outbreaks is of crucial importance. Studies have shown the effectiveness of using large-scale mobility data to monitor the impacts of non-pharmaceutical interventions (e.g., lockdowns) through population density analysis. However, predicting the locations of potential outbreak occurrence is difficult using mobility data alone. Meanwhile, web search queries have been shown to be good predictors of the disease spread. In this study, we utilize a unique dataset of human mobility trajectories (GPS traces) and web search queries with common user identifiers (> 450 K users), to predict COVID-19 hotspot locations beforehand. More specifically, web search query analysis is conducted to identify users with high risk of COVID-19 contraction, and social contact analysis was further performed on the mobility patterns of these users to quantify the risk of an outbreak. Our approach is empirically tested using data collected from users in Tokyo, Japan. We show that by integrating COVID-19 related web search query analytics with social contact networks, we are able to predict COVID-19 hotspot locations 1-2 weeks beforehand, compared to just using social contact indexes or web search data analysis. This study proposes a novel method that can be used in early warning systems for disease outbreak hotspots, which can assist government agencies to prepare effective strategies to prevent further disease spread. Human mobility data and web search query data linked with common IDs are used to predict COVID-19 outbreaks. High risk social contact index captures both the contact density and COVID-19 contraction risks of individuals. Real world data was collected from 200 K individual users in Tokyo during the COVID-19 pandemic. Experiments showed that the index can be used for microscopic outbreak early warning.

Spatiotemporal contact density explains the disparity of COVID-19 spread in urban neighborhoods.

The rapid early spread of COVID-19 in the US was experienced very differently by different socioeconomic groups and business industries. In this study, we study aggregate mobility patterns of New York City and Chicago to identify the relationship between the amount of interpersonal contact between people in urban neighborhoods and the disparity in the growth of positive cases among these groups. We introduce an aggregate spatiotemporal contact density index (CDI) to measure the strength of this interpersonal contact using mobility data collected from mobile phones, and combine it with social distancing metrics to show its effect on positive case growth. With the help of structural equations modeling, we find that the effect of CDI on case growth was consistently positive and that it remained consistently higher in lower-income neighborhoods, suggesting a causal path of income on case growth via CDI. Using the CDI, schools and restaurants are identified as high contact density industries, and the estimation suggests that implementing specific mobility restrictions on these point-of-interest categories is most effective. This analysis can be useful in providing insights for government officials targeting specific population groups and businesses to reduce infection spread as reopening efforts continue to expand across the nation.

Connecting urban transportation systems with the spread of infectious diseases: A Trans-SEIR modeling approach

Urban transportation systems satisfy the essential mobility needs of the large-scale urban population, but it also creates an ideal environment that favors the spread of infectious diseases, leading to significant risk exposure to the massive urban population. In this study, we develop the mathematical model to understand the coupling between the spreading dynamics of infectious diseases and the mobility dynamics through urban transportation systems. We first describe the mobility dynamics of the urban population as the process of leaving from home, traveling to and from the activity locations, and engaging in activities. We then embed the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) process over the mobility dynamics and develops the spatial SEIR model with travel contagion (Trans-SEIR), which explicitly accounts for contagions both during travel and during daily activities. We investigate the theoretical properties of the proposed model and show how activity contagion and travel contagion contribute to the average number of secondary infections. We further develop an optimal control strategy for the effective entrance control of public transportation systems with optimal allocation of limited resources. In the numerical experiments, we explore how the urban transportation system may alter the fundamental dynamics of the infectious disease, change the number of secondary infections, promote the synchronization of the disease across the city, and affect the peak of the disease outbreaks. The Trans-SEIR model is further applied to understand the disease dynamics during early COVID-19 outbreak in New York City, where we show how the activity and travel contagion may be distributed and how effective entrance control can be implemented in urban transportation systems. The Trans-SEIR model, along with the findings in our study, may significantly improve our understanding of the coupling between urban transportation systems and disease dynamics, the development of quarantine and control measures for mitigating the disease risks and promoting the idea of disease-resilient urban transportation networks.

Non-compulsory measures sufficiently reduced human mobility in Tokyo during the COVID-19 epidemic.

While large scale mobility data has become a popular tool to monitor the mobility patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic, the impacts of non-compulsory measures in Tokyo, Japan on human mobility patterns has been under-studied. Here, we analyze the temporal changes in human mobility behavior, social contact rates, and their correlations with the transmissibility of COVID-19, using mobility data collected from more than 200K anonymized mobile phone users in Tokyo. The analysis concludes that by April 15th (1 week into state of emergency), human mobility behavior decreased by around 50%, resulting in a 70% reduction of social contacts in Tokyo, showing the strong relationships with non-compulsory measures. Furthermore, the reduction in data-driven human mobility metrics showed correlation with the decrease in estimated effective reproduction number of COVID-19 in Tokyo. Such empirical insights could inform policy makers on deciding sufficient levels of mobility reduction to contain the disease.